{{first_name}} I ran 3.6 miles this morning before the sun was fully up and spent most of it thinking about nothing in particular — which is, honestly, the whole point. By the time I got home, made coffee, and sat down, I had seventeen unread notifications about mortgage rates, the Fed, and what the housing market is supposedly doing. I read through all of them. Most of it is noise dressed up as urgency. Some of it actually matters. This week, a little of both.

Grab something warm. Let's talk.

The 30-year fixed rate closed April at 6.30% (per Freddie Mac) and is sitting in the same neighborhood this week — sources have it ranging from 6.20% to 6.44% depending on the day and the lender. Nothing dramatic. Rates ticked up slightly from a mid-April low of around 6.02%, nudged higher by inflation concerns tied to rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Here's the more interesting storyline this week: on April 29, Jerome Powell delivered his final press conference as Fed Chair. His term ends May 15. In closing remarks that felt a bit like a retirement speech he didn't entirely plan to give, Powell emphasized Fed independence and confirmed he'll remain on the board as a governor rather than step away entirely — a decision he attributed, carefully, to legal pressures he felt he needed to see through.

Kevin Warsh — President Trump's nominee to take the chair — advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee that same morning along party lines and is now headed toward a full Senate confirmation vote. Warsh has signaled a preference for rate cuts, though most economists note there isn't a strong economic case for easing right now.

What does a new Fed chair mean for mortgage rates? Probably not much immediately. The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates — the bond market does. But leadership tone and communication style matter over time. For now, we're in a watch-and-wait moment.

If you're a buyer: Rates in the mid-6s are not a reason to pause. Purchase applications are up more than 20% compared to a year ago — meaning plenty of buyers have already done that math. More inventory this spring means more options and more room to negotiate on the right properties.

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If you're a seller: The buyers who are out there are serious and qualified. A well-prepared, honestly-priced home is still moving. The market hasn't stopped — it's just paying closer attention.

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Lake County had 1,078 single-family homes for sale in April — down 2.2% from a year ago.

If that number feels small, that's because it is.

At the peak in 2009, there were more than 8,000 homes on the market here. We've lost roughly 87% of that inventory over 15 years — and it keeps shrinking. That's the floor under prices. That's why waiting for a crash doesn't pencil out. There is no wave of distressed inventory coming. There is no correction waiting around the corner. There is just a county with more people who want to live here than there are homes available — and that math keeps winning.

Median sale prices in Lake County hit $390,000 in March 2026, up 4% year-over-year. Home values on Zillow's index are up 5.9% over the past year. The Chicago metro — which includes us — is forecast to see close to 5% price growth for all of 2026.

The market isn't frozen. It isn't easy. But it is consistent, and consistency is actually what you want when you're making one of the biggest financial decisions of your life.

Every week I work with buyers who are ready to move — they just haven't found the right home yet. Sometimes that home is yours. Take a look and see if anything rings a bell.

Know someone whose home fits? Let's connect before it hits the market.

Independence Grove Forest Preserve in Libertyville reopened its beer garden for the season, and if you haven't been, it's one of those places that reminds you why people move to Lake County in the first place. Lakeside seating, local craft brews on tap, and the kind of scenery that makes a Tuesday feel like a weekend. It's open now — worth putting on the calendar before the summer crowds figure it out.

If you're more of a treasure-hunter type, the Grayslake Antiques & Flea Market is this weekend — May 9–10 at the Lake County Fairgrounds. Vendors from all over, the kind of stuff you can't find on Etsy, and the very real possibility of leaving with something you had no plan to buy. Worth the trip.

Check out Independence Grove →

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1,078 homes. That's what's available in a county of 700,000 people. The market isn't confusing — it's just tight. And tight markets reward people who are prepared, decisive, and working with someone who knows what they're doing.

If something in here got you thinking, reply to this email. Or find me on Instagram, YouTube, or just show up at the office on Milwaukee Ave in Libertyville. I post something worth reading or watching almost every day — market stuff, local news, and occasionally something that has absolutely nothing to do with real estate.

Until next week…