Hi {{first_name}},

Halloween is still three weeks away, and Chicago already had its horror movie.

Saturday night, the White Sox season ended in Cleveland with a 2–0 loss. Last week I told you they'd shut out the Guardians in Game 1. Cleveland apparently read it and returned the favor when it counted. Then on Sunday the Bears went to Green Bay, where the 3–1 start I bragged about ran straight into a 31–7 loss. If you spent the weekend watching both, you've earned a full-size candy bar. Maybe two.

So here's my promise for this week: nothing in this email is scary. No jump scares and no creepy music. Just a plain explanation of what your house is worth and why that number moves.

Here's what's inside. First, the three things that actually move home values: supply and demand, mortgage rates, and the type of market we're in. I'll show you where Lake County stands on each one right now, with real numbers. Next, why your house seems to have four different values, and which one to trust. Then the part that's about you: what your house is worth this month, and an easy way to keep track of it from here on.

Your house doesn't have a price. It has a range of prices buyers are willing to pay on a given day. Three things move that range.

This is most of it. When lots of buyers are chasing few homes, prices go up. When homes pile up and buyers thin out, prices soften.

The number to watch is months of supply: how long it would take to sell every home on the market if nothing new got listed.

Lake County is sitting at about 2 to 2.5 months, depending on whose numbers you use. That's still a seller's market. Prices are up roughly 4% to 6% from a year ago. Redfin, Zillow, and the MLS all land in that range.

But here's the part worth watching: for the first time in a while, there are more homes for sale than last year, up about 5% to 6%. Still not enough, but the gap is closing.

Rates don't change what a house is worth. They change what a buyer can afford to pay for it.

A year ago, the 30-year rate was around 6.34%. As of October 1, it's 7.28%. On a $410,000 home with 20% down, that's about $205 more per month in principal and interest for the same house.

Or flip it around: a buyer whose budget was built at last year's rate can now afford roughly $38,000 less house for the same payment.

When rates climb, some buyers step back. Fewer buyers means less competition, and that eventually shows up in prices. When rates drop, those buyers come back all at once.

Put the first two together and you get the market you're in. Right now Lake County has low supply pulling prices up and higher rates pushing buyers out. Those two forces are fighting each other.

That's why you'll hear "prices are still rising" and "the market's slowing down" in the same week. Both are true, depending on the town, the price point, and the street.

Ask four sources what your house is worth and you'll get four different answers. None of them is lying. They're just measuring different things.

This is an algorithm's guess, built from public records and nearby sales. It's never been inside your house. It doesn't know you redid the kitchen or that the basement leaks every spring. It's a fine starting point and a terrible finishing point.

This is the number on your property tax bill, and it confuses a lot of people here. In Illinois, the assessed value is supposed to be about one-third of market value. So if your bill shows $130,000, the county is really saying your home is worth around $390,000.

That number can also lag the market by a year or more. It's built for splitting up the tax bill, not for telling you what a buyer would pay.

This is what a lender's appraiser says the home is worth, usually during a purchase or a refinance. It's grounded in recent sales, but it looks backward. In a market moving as fast as ours, the appraisal and the offer don't always line up. When they don't, someone has a hard conversation.

This is what a real buyer will actually pay for your house right now, with its updates, its flaws, and its spot on the street. It's the only number that ever shows up in your bank account.

The other three are useful. But when you're making a real decision, market value is the one that counts.

If any of this is fuzzy, or your tax bill doesn't add up, just ask. That's what I'm here for. And if you need a more accurate number for your specific home, maybe because you're weighing a move, a refinance, or a big renovation, we can set up a formal valuation. I'll walk through the house, look at what's actually selling around you, and give you a real number you can plan around.

Not what Zillow guessed. Not what the neighbor's house sold for in 2023. This month.

Some of you already get a home value report from me every month. If you do, here's what it's actually for:

If you're not getting one, just reply to this email with your address. That's it. I'll set it up, and you'll get a fresh report every month. No calls, no "so are you thinking of selling?"

If you've got a question about your number while you're at it, ask. I read every reply.

This week's sponsor: Kalshi. Everything above comes back to one idea: most of what moves your home's value, like rates, supply, and the economy, is out of your hands. So here's a question I couldn't answer: how does an ice cream shop make money when it's cold? This week's sponsor explains it, and it's a smarter way to think about the stuff you can't control. Worth the click.

(A note from me: Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market. Treat it like any other money decision, and only use what you can afford to lose.)

Every October, somebody on my street puts a "For Sale" sign in their Halloween display as a joke. A skeleton holding it, usually. Maybe a tombstone that says "Priced to Sell."

It gets a laugh because selling a house feels like it should be scary. Nobody really knows the number, and the market changes every week.

But the people who get through it without the drama aren't luckier than everyone else. They just knew their number before they needed it. They watched it move for a year or two, so when life changed (a new job, a new baby, an empty nest) they weren't starting from zero.

That's all the monthly report is. It's the flashlight before you go down the stairs.

Hit reply with your address, and I'll take it from there.

Until next week…